Analysis of the Global Energy Structure Transformation and Strategic Trends of Major Economies
The global energy structure transformation will enter a critical stage in 2025. Ember, a global energy think tank, points out that for the first time, global renewable energy generation will surpass coal to become the primary source of electricity. The IEA predicts that global renewable energy generation capacity will double between 2025 and 2030, increasing by 4,600 gigawatts¹; the use of liquid and gaseous renewable fuels will also double (if current and proposed national and international policies are fully implemented)². Although the supply and demand of fossil fuels are still growing, the deployment of renewable energy is accelerating, and the resurgence of nuclear energy is evident³. In 2025, "Global Renewable Energy Growth Is Unstoppable" was named Science's top scientific breakthrough of the year⁴, and Nature also named "The Advancement of Renewable Energy" one of its seven breakthroughs of the year⁵. This article systematically reviews the global energy structure transformation in 2025 and the energy strategic trends of the three major economies of the US, Europe, and China, summarizing the overall trends in energy development and the challenges of transformation, providing a reference for judging future changes in the global energy landscape.
01 Current Status of Global Energy Structure Transformation
(I) Accelerated Adjustment of Global Energy Supply Structure, with Renewable Energy Dominating Growth
Renewable energy has become the core driver of energy supply growth, but fossil fuels still play a fundamental role in ensuring energy supply. IEA data shows that renewable energy is growing the fastest, while natural gas (forecasted to grow by 1.3% in 2026, similar to 2025) and nuclear energy (forecasted to grow at an average annual rate of nearly 2% from 2025 to 2026) are maintaining steady expansion⁶. At the same time, the transformation of the primary energy structure is relatively lagging, with fossil fuels still supporting approximately 86% of the energy supply system⁷, and it is difficult to replace them with renewable energy in the short term. The coordinated operation of old and new energy sources will become an important feature for some time to come. The decarbonization process of the global power structure is accelerating significantly, and renewable energy is gradually becoming the main source of electricity growth. According to Ember data, renewable energy generation reached 5072 TWh in the first half of 2025, accounting for 34.3%, exceeding coal's 4896 TWh (33.1%). Solar power generation achieved record growth (31%), becoming the main driver of global power system transformation⁸. The combined share of low-carbon energy in the first three quarters has increased to 43%⁹. Significant differences exist in energy structures across regions, with China at the heart of global clean energy and nuclear power growth. Fossil energy is primarily supplied by North America, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region, while clean energy is dominated by China, the US, and Europe, with emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific accelerating their transformation. Specifically, thanks to stable supply from the five largest oil-producing countries in the Americas (the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, and Argentina) and weak global demand growth, the oil market will have ample supply in the short term. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is projected to grow by more than 7% in 2026, with North America continuing to lead this growth. The US, Canada, and Mexico will account for over 85% of the increased supply. Increased coal supply is largely due to increased production in China, India, and Indonesia. China maintains its position as the world's largest coal producer and is at the core of global clean energy and nuclear power growth. According to statistics, in 2024, Asia accounted for the largest share (72.0%) of newly installed renewable energy capacity, adding 421.5 GW to reach 2382 GW (accounting for 53.6% of the global total). The majority of this growth came from China (373.6 GW, accounting for 64% of the global increase), followed by Europe with 70.1 GW (9.0%)¹⁰. It is projected that China will still account for nearly 60% of the global renewable energy capacity growth between 2025 and 2030¹¹.
(II) Global Energy Demand Continues to Expand, with Electricity Growth and Emerging Markets Prominent Drivers
Global electricity demand maintains rapid growth. The IEA's 2025 Mid-Year Electricity Update¹² projects that global electricity demand will grow by 3.3% and 3.7% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, more than double the growth rate of total energy demand. By 2026, global electricity consumption is expected to exceed 29,000 TWh, setting a new historical record. Global electricity demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.6% between 2026 and 2030, 50% higher than the average of the past decade. According to the IEA, due to increasing electricity consumption from industry, electric vehicles, air conditioning, extreme weather, and data centers, the combined share of renewable energy and nuclear power in the electricity mix could rise to 50%¹³¹⁴. Global fossil fuel demand continues to grow, but the overall growth rate is slowing. In 2024, oil's share historically fell below 30%, with demand growth slowing to 0.8%; natural gas demand grew by 2.7%, coal demand by about 1%, and demand for non-fossil energy sources such as renewable energy and nuclear power grew by more than 5%¹⁵. According to the latest IEA data, oil demand is projected to increase by 830,000 barrels per day in 2025, while supply growth will be revised downward by 100,000 barrels per day¹⁶. Natural gas supply and demand continue to grow, with global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply increasing by nearly 7%, while demand growth has slowed significantly, with annual natural gas consumption growth less than 1%¹⁷. Coal demand is expected to grow by 0.5% to a record 8.85 billion tons, while coal supply may be comparable to the record 9.1 billion tons in 2024, reaching 9.111 billion tons, indicating that coal is entering a plateau period before a decline¹⁸. Energy demand is dominated by the Asia-Pacific region, with emerging markets being the main drivers of growth. Natural gas demand growth will slow in 2025, primarily driven by Europe and North America, while demand in Asia remains weak, and demand in Eurasia is declining. In 2026, natural gas demand in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to grow by 4%, accounting for about half of the global growth, while North America will remain largely flat. Coal demand will depend on Asia and will be highly concentrated in a few emerging economies and developing countries. China is the most crucial, followed by India, Indonesia, and other Southeast Asian countries. Of the coal demand in these economies, about half is used for power generation¹⁹. Oil demand is slowing, with consumption mainly concentrated in the United States, India, and China. China is the largest market for renewable energy, accounting for 45% to 60% of global installed capacity over the next decade, and is also the largest producer of most renewable energy technologies. Solar panel and battery production capacity is ample (most of which is concentrated in China). Emerging and developing countries, led by China, are the main drivers of electricity demand growth, and are projected to account for nearly 80% of new electricity consumption by 2030, with China accounting for nearly 50% of the total growth. Notably, electricity demand growth in developed economies is accelerating again after 15 years of stagnation, with the United States and the European Union both experiencing growth in 2025.
(III) Clean energy investment trends are evident, but grid construction lags behind and regional imbalances are prominent.
Clean energy investment is significantly ahead, but grid investment is struggling to keep pace with the growth in electricity demand and the deployment speed of renewable energy. According to the IEA's "World Energy Investment 2025"²⁰ released in June 2025, energy investment is projected to reach $3.3 trillion in 2025, a 2% increase from 2024. Of this, approximately $2.2 trillion will be invested in renewable energy, nuclear power, and power grids, double the amount invested in oil, gas, and coal ($1.1 trillion). Electrification is a prominent feature of the investment structure, with approximately $1.5 trillion invested in the power sector; solar energy investment reaches approximately $450 billion, and nuclear energy investment has increased by 50% over the past five years. Upstream oil investment is projected to decline by 6% in 2025, with global refinery investment falling to its lowest level in the past 10 years. Investment in coal supply continues its upward trend, projected to grow by another 4% in 2025, a slight slowdown compared to the 6% average annual growth rate over the past five years. However, power grid investment is significantly lagging behind the expansion of the generation side. Currently, global annual power grid investment is approximately $400 billion, only about 40% of power generation investment ($100 million). Investment funds are mainly concentrated in economies such as China, the United States, and Europe, exhibiting a significant regional imbalance. According to data from the IRENA report²¹, between 2022/2023 and 2024, investment increased in almost all regions. China's share of global renewable energy investment decreased from 50% to 44% (US$352 billion), but it still ranked first. Investment in Europe, North America, and Oceania increased by 22% and 34% respectively, and their combined share of global investment rose from 31% to 32%. In 2024, sub-Saharan Africa received only 2.3% of total renewable energy investment.
02 Energy Structure and Strategic Trends of Major Economies
As the core players in global energy consumption and supply, the United States, the European Union, and China have formed different energy development paths based on their own endowments and external environments.
(I) The US energy policy has significantly shifted away from green energy and stabilized oil, strengthening oil and gas exports and nuclear energy support, while continuously tightening clean energy subsidies.
Oil and gas remain the main primary energy source in the United States. According to statistics from the U.S. Energy Information Administration in June 2025²², total U.S. energy consumption in 2024 was approximately 94.2 quads (ten quadrillion British thermal units), with renewable energy reaching a new record of approximately 8.6 quads (an increase of 5%), nuclear energy at approximately 8.2 quads, oil remaining the largest contributor at approximately 35.3 quads, and natural gas reaching a new high of approximately 34.2 quads. In early 2025, the U.S. Treasury implemented several clean energy incentive measures. First, it transitioned the clean electricity tax incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) framework to the "technology-neutral" 45Y/48E, aiming to expand the coverage and certainty of clean power and electrification investments²³. Second, it released the final rules for the 45V clean hydrogen tax credit, clarifying eligibility criteria centered on life-cycle emissions, and promoting a unified approach for hydrogen projects "towards low-carbon electricity matching and verifiable emission reduction pathways"²⁴. However, after the Trump administration took office, U.S. energy policy returned to a comprehensive focus on traditional fossil fuels. In the clean energy sector, the US is vigorously developing nuclear and fusion energy. In May, Trump signed several executive orders²⁵ to comprehensively promote the rapid development of the nuclear energy industry. Simultaneously, the US is strengthening its "energy-dominant" orientation through administrative measures (such as establishing relevant coordination mechanisms and promoting oil and gas development and exports)²⁶. Fossil energy and energy export policies emphasize "energy dominance/security," with natural gas becoming a key tool. In early 2025, the US Department of Energy announced the end of the previous suspension of LNG export approvals and the resumption of regular approval processes, reflecting a policy inclination to use natural gas exports as a "geopolitical and industrial tool"²⁷.
(II) The EU's energy sector is centered on "reducing costs and decreasing dependence," with wind and solar power showing a structural trend of surpassing fossil fuels in the electricity sector.
The EU's energy structure continues to see an increase in the proportion of renewable energy, with wind and solar power reaching the milestone of "surpassing fossil fuels" in the electricity sector. In 2024, renewable energy accounted for 25.2% of final energy consumption in the EU. Renewable energy accounted for nearly 48% of total electricity generation. Solar photovoltaic power generation increased significantly by 22%, surpassing hydropower to become the second largest source of renewable electricity, second only to wind power²⁸. The 2025 policy shifts the energy structure transformation from emissions reduction to structural de-reliance. At the EU level, emphasis is placed on reducing dependence on energy imports while strengthening local clean manufacturing capabilities. In its February report, "Progress Report on Clean Energy Technology Competitiveness (2025)," the European Commission analyzed the current status, opportunities, and challenges of 15 net-zero technologies in the country, providing recommendations for further enhancing the EU's competitiveness in clean energy technology and promoting energy transition²⁹³⁰. In October, the European Commission released "A New EU Strategy for a Clean and Resilient Global Transition³¹," aiming to increase the EU's clean technology manufacturing capacity to 15% of the global technology market while enhancing industrial competitiveness. In November, the European Commission released the "State of the Energy Union Report 2025" and its accompanying "Progress Report on Climate Action 2025"³², pointing out that to achieve the 2030 energy targets, the coming years require faster promotion of renewable energy and improved energy efficiency, lower energy prices, and enhanced competitiveness through clean energy. Furthermore, the EU's electricity market reforms will enter the implementation phase in 2025, strengthening contracts for difference (CFDs) and long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) to provide stable revenue expectations for renewable energy and enhance the operational resilience of high-proportion wind and solar power systems.
(III) China's clean energy sector is showing a trend of large-scale expansion and rapid green transformation.
According to the latest data from the National Energy Administration³³, by the end of 2025, the national cumulative installed power generation capacity will reach approximately 3.89 billion kilowatts (year-on-year +16.1%), including 1.2 billion kilowatts of solar power (year-on-year +35.4%) and 640 million kilowatts of wind power (year-on-year +22.9%). The 2025 energy strategy will further refine the "dual-carbon" implementation path, increase the deployment of renewable energy, promote decarbonization in key areas, and improve policy support and regulatory systems. In February 2025, the National Energy Administration issued a notice on the "Guiding Opinions on Energy Work in 2025³⁴", which pointed out in its main objectives that the green and low-carbon transformation will continue to deepen. The proportion of non-fossil energy power generation capacity will increase to around 60%, and the proportion of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption will increase to around 20%. Regarding nuclear power policy, the February energy work guidelines stated that "a batch of coastal nuclear power projects with mature conditions should be approved, and the comprehensive utilization of nuclear energy should be promoted according to local conditions." In April, nuclear power projects accelerated, with the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration approving five new nuclear power projects.³⁵ The "Atomic Energy Law of the People's Republic of China," passed in September, provides policy guarantees for the active, safe, and orderly development of nuclear power.³⁶ In February 2026, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Implementation Opinions on Improving the National Unified Electricity Market System," proposing the establishment of a "national unified electricity market system" and emphasizing measures such as improving inter-provincial and inter-regional power transmission capacity, constructing new power systems, and improving policies for renewable energy consumption.³⁷
03 Future Development Trends and Transformation Challenges
The future of global energy will exhibit core trends of clean energy dominance, accelerated regional differentiation, and a balance between security and low carbon emissions. (1) Electrification will continue to accelerate in the future, and the pace of electrification substitution in terminal fields such as industry, transportation, and construction will continue to accelerate, and high growth in electricity demand will become the new normal. Among them, the rapid growth of energy-consuming fields such as AI data centers and new energy vehicles will become the core engine of electricity demand growth, forcing the power system to transform towards high flexibility and high intelligence; (2) Wind and solar power will continue to dominate the incremental renewable energy, but the supply capacity of flexible resources will determine the upper limit of renewable energy development. In the future, the scale of flexible resource layout and the maturity of technology will become the key to restricting the grid connection of renewable energy; (3) The investment focus will shift from power generation assets to grid, energy storage, and system resilience, and energy policies will be more industrialized and geopolitical. In terms of industrialization, national policies will focus on the independent control of core industrial chains such as photovoltaic and wind power and reduce the import dependence of core raw materials, components and products. In terms of geopolitics, energy security and low-carbon transformation will proceed in parallel, and countries will promote the diversification of energy supply, and regional energy interconnection and trading will become a new focus of cooperation. At the same time, the global energy transformation faces multiple transformation challenges such as technological bottlenecks, infrastructure lag, geopolitical games, and capital and resource constraints, which restrict the progress of the transformation process and the implementation of goals. (1) The pressure to balance energy security and low-carbon transformation is increasing. As the proportion of renewable energy continues to increase, problems such as insufficient power system stability, energy storage capacity, and reserve capacity are gradually becoming apparent. If the pace of phasing out fossil fuels is not properly managed, it could impact energy supply security and price stability.
At the same time, the manufacturing of some key clean energy equipment is concentrated in a few countries, increasing the risk of supply chain security; (2) The acceleration of electrification puts higher demands on the carrying capacity of the power system. The continuous growth of electricity demand has brought greater pressure to the grid capacity, peak-shaving capacity, cross-regional power transmission and market mechanism operation. If the construction of the power grid and the reform of the power market are slow, problems such as increased electricity price fluctuations, increased local congestion and decreased power supply reliability may occur; (3) Investment structure mismatch and regional differences affect the transformation. At present, energy investment is characterized by rapid expansion on the power generation side and relatively lagging grid construction. At the same time, funds are mainly concentrated in developed economies, while investment in developing countries is insufficient. If grid investment is insufficient for a long time, the renewable energy absorption capacity will be restricted, and differences in financing conditions will further differentiate the progress of energy transformation in different regions; (4) Extreme weather and increased load peaks make energy security and stability the core. In recent years, extreme weather such as high temperature, rainstorms and cold waves have occurred frequently, which not only impacts the stability of renewable energy output, but also leads to an increase in the power burden, and many places have experienced a tight power supply situation.
Reference:
[1]IEA. Renewables 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2025
[2]IEA. Delivering Sustainable Fuels. https://www.iea.org/reports/delivering-sustainable-fuels
[3]IEA. World Energy Outlook 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2025
[4]Science. 2025 Breakthrough of the year. https://www.science.org/content/article/breakthrough-2025
[5]Nature. Seven feel-good science stories to restore your faith in 2025. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-03505-7
[6]IEA. Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-mid-year-update-2025
[7]Energy institute. 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy. https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review
[8]EMBER.Global Electricity Mid-Year Insights 2025. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-mid-year-insights-2025/
[9]EMBER.Q3 Global Power Report: No fossil fuel growth expected in 2025. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/q3-global-power-report-no-fossil-fuel-growth-expected-in-2025/
[10]IRENA. Renewable capacity statistics 2025. https://www.irena.org/Publications/2025/Mar/Renewable-capacity-statistics-2025
[11]IEA. Renewables 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2025
[12]IEA. Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-mid-year-update-2025
[13]IEA. Electricity 2026. https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2026
[14]IEA. Electricity 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2025
[15]IEA. Global Energy Review 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2025
[16]IEA. Oil Market Report - December 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-december-2025
[17]IEA. Gas Market Report, Q1-2026. https://www.iea.org/reports/gas-market-report-q1-2026
[18]IEA. Coal 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2025
[19]IEA. World energy outlook 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2025
[20]IEA. World Energy Investment 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2025
[21]IRENA. Global landscape of energy transition finance 2025. https://www.irena.org/Publications/2025/Nov/Global-landscape-of-energy-transition-finance-2025
[22]U.S. EIA. U.S. primary energy production, consumption, and exports increased in 2024. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65524
[23]U.S. Department of the Treasury. U.S. Department of the Treasury Releases Final Rules for Technology-Neutral Clean Electricity Credits. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2774.
[24]U.S. Department of the Treasury. U.S. Department of the Treasury. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2768
[25]The White House. President Trump Signs Executive Orders to Usher in a Nuclear Renaissance, Restore Gold Standard Science. https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/05/president-trump-signs-executive-orders-to-usher-in-a-nuclear-renaissance-restore-gold-standard-science/
[26]AP. Trump creates council for ‘energy dominance,’ boosts natural gas exports and offshore drilling. https://apnews.com/article/lng-exports-trump-energy-dominance-offshore-drilling-f0e0d3b2dfb0f6a3e81cadd2dcd56696
[27]DOE. U.S. Department of Energy Reverses Biden LNG Pause, Restores Trump Energy Dominance Agenda. https://www.energy.gov/articles/us-department-energy-reverses-biden-lng-pause-restores-trump-energy-dominance-agenda
[28]Ceenergy news. IEA: Renewables can meet EU electricity demand growth in coming years. https://ceenergynews.com/electricity/iea-electricity-report-2026/
[30]EU.REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCILProgress on competitiveness of clean energy technologies. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52025DC0074&qid=1740650518877
[31]EU. EU's new strategy to shape a global clean and resilient transition. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_2389
[32]EU. EU is progressing towards its 2030 climate and energy goals while tackling high energy prices, State of the Energy Union Report 2025 shows. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_2586
[33] National Energy Administration. National Energy Administration releases national electricity statistics for 2025. https://www.nea.gov.cn/20260129/6874f211acd0417eab7ac10c3061a7c2/c.html
[34] Central People's Government of the People's Republic of China. Notice of the National Energy Administration on Issuing the "Guiding Opinions on Energy Work in 2025". https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/202502/content_7007276.htm
[35] Central People's Government of the People's Republic of China. China approves 5 new nuclear power projects.https://www.gov.cn/lianbo/bumen/202504/content_7021507.htm
[36] National Nuclear Safety Administration. Atomic Energy Law of the People's Republic of China.https://nnsa.mee.gov.cn/ztzl/fgbzwjk/gjfl/202510/t20251023_1130682.html
[37] Central People's Government of the People's Republic of China. Implementation Opinions of the General Office of the State Council on Improving the National Unified Electricity Market System. https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/202602/content_7057745.htm
Source：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-pAAwzjQfzqORLdcsLHpHg