Attention | Analysis of Policy Dividends in Solid Waste Management
Here is the English translation of the article:
Attention | Analysis of Policy Dividends in Solid Waste Management
On June 2, the Central Ecological and Environmental Protection Inspection publicly reported typical cases from four provinces. Among them, three cases — in Huludao, Liaoning; Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang; and Zhaoqing/Chaozhou, Guangdong — pointed directly to the same issue: the "historical debts" of solid waste.
This is no coincidence. Five months into 2026, if you have been tracking the policy rhythm in the solid waste sector, you will notice a fundamental difference this year compared to previous years: documents are no longer "issued and forgotten." Every provision now comes with enforceable standards, timelines, and funding channels.
At the beginning of the year, the State Council issued the Comprehensive Action Plan for Solid Waste Management(Guo Fa [2025] No. 14), commonly referred to as the "Solid Waste Ten Articles," which serves as the top-level design. But the real changes came in the following months —
On March 1, HJ 1464-2026, the Technical Specification for Investigation and Risk Assessment of Historical Solid Waste Pollution in Mining Areas, was officially enforced. This standard transformed mine solid waste surveys from "recommended" to "mandatory," opening the floodgates for investigation and assessment across tens of thousands of mines nationwide.
Three Signals: Why This Round Is Different
Environmental policies come every year. So why does the 2026 round of solid waste management deserve special attention? Three signals.
Signal One: Standards Are No Longer "Reference Documents" but "Hard Constraints"
The enforcement of HJ 1464-2026 marks a watershed moment.
In the past, mine solid waste investigations long operated in a state of "no standards to follow." For historical legacy mines, ownerless mines, and closed mines — who should investigate, how to investigate, and what to do after investigation — there was no unified approach. The result: a large number of stockpiles with unclear inventories and unknown risks, managed by "rough estimates."
HJ 1464 fills this gap. It specifies five core steps: preliminary preparation and data collection → site survey and preliminary risk assessment → sampling and laboratory testing → risk assessment and classification → report preparation and review filing. Each step has operational specifications, ultimately producing a "one-site-one-policy" control ledger that directly connects to treatment projects and funding applications.
More importantly, the sampling and monitoring requirements are stringent. Simultaneous sampling of solid waste, soil, surface water, groundwater, and sediments is required; full analysis of characteristic heavy metals, pH, moisture content, and leaching toxicity; multi-period monitoring during wet and dry seasons. Technologies such as drone aerial surveys, Beidou positioning, and 3D modeling — "sky-air-ground" integrated technologies — have become standard for surveys.
What does this mean? It means that surveys are no longer about filling out a form. They represent a complete technical service chain, from third-party investigation and assessment agencies, environmental testing laboratories, to information technology teams — each link has its professional threshold.
Signal Two: Central Funding Channels Are Open
At a State Council Information Office policy briefing on January 13, Zhou Haibing, Vice Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, made two things clear: first, the "Zero-Waste City" initiative will expand to around 200 cities during the 15th Five-Year Plan period; second, "vigorously develop green finance and guide financial institutions and social capital to increase investment."
Subsequently, the Measures for the Management of Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Special Fundsprovided specific figures — eligible comprehensive utilization projects for bulk solid waste can receive up to 20% of total project investment in central government support.
What does 20% mean? A typical tailings comprehensive utilization project usually involves an investment scale of RMB 50 million to 200 million. Twenty percent translates to RMB 10 million to 40 million. This is not small money.
But getting this money comes with conditions. Based on past application experience, three common reasons for failure are worth noting:
- Project positioning deviation: Only talking about "how much solid waste is treated," not "how many virgin resources are replaced." For example, in construction waste recycling, application materials need to highlight the resource-saving attributes of "recycled aggregates replacing natural sand and gravel, reducing mining," rather than simply stacking processing volume data.
- Missing supporting documentation: Third-party technical evaluation reports, carbon emission reduction calculations, market prospect analysis, and financial proof — all are indispensable.
- Implementation plan too vague: Technical processes, equipment selection, raw material supply, sales channels, construction timeline, and financing plans — each item must be verifiable in detail.
Signal Three: Policy Synergy Is Taking Shape
Looking at the policy documents from the first half of 2026 together, they are not isolated:
- January: State Council's "Solid Waste Ten Articles" formally announced (top-level design)
- January: State Council Information Office briefing clarifies expansion of Zero-Waste Cities to 200 and green finance increases (supporting measures)
- February: Six ministries jointly issue guidance on comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules (industrial extension)
- March: HJ 1464-2026 enforced (technical standards implemented)
- March: Nine ministries jointly issue action plan for investigating and rectifying heavy metal environmental safety hazards, 2025-2030 five-year term (special governance coordination)
From "top-level design → supporting measures → technical standards → special governance," four levels of policy were intensively released in the first half of the same year — a pace uncommon in the past solid waste management field.
Coupled with the ongoing development of technical specifications for the recycling of waste photovoltaic equipment and pollution control, and for the utilization of phosphogypsum and red mud, this framework of "standards + funding + enforcement" has filled most of the gaps.
Where the Money Flows: Four Most Certain Tracks
With policy certainty, market size becomes calculable. Below are the four highest-certainty directions, sorted by "policy urgency × market size."
Track One: Mine Solid Waste Survey and Treatment (Trillion-yuan level, tightest time window)
A set of data illustrates the scale:
- Total national mine solid waste stockpile exceeds 60 billion tons
- In 2025, total national bulk industrial solid waste generation reached 4.83 billion tons, of which mining accounted for 52.1% and metallurgy 38.7%, totaling over 90%
- The market size for mining and metallurgical waste management in 2026 is expected to reach RMB 212.95 billion, up 7.2% year-on-year
But the key is not just the total volume — it's the low utilization rate: mining waste rock 31.6%, tailings 38.2%, metallurgical slag 29.4%, copper slag 12.4%, lead-zinc slag 9.7%. Large amounts of stockpiled solid waste remain in a "dumped and unattended" state, posing both environmental pollution and geological disaster risks.
After HJ 1464 takes effect, the governance rhythm is roughly: 2026 — survey and assessment fully launched → 2027-2028 — treatment projects concentratedly initiated → 2029-2030 — long-term supervision and operation normalized.
Beneficiaries in this track fall into four tiers:
- Third-party investigation and assessment agencies: Single project fees range from hundreds of thousands to millions of yuan; demand for surveys of tens of thousands of mines nationwide is being released intensively
- Environmental testing and laboratories: Multi-period, multi-media sampling monitoring provides sustained and stable orders
- Mine ecological restoration and treatment engineering companies: Individual treatment projects can reach tens of millions; this is the most profitable segment
- Information technology service teams: Drones + Beidou + 3D modeling have become standard, with clear technology premiums
Track Two: Bulk Solid Waste Resource Utilization (Trillion-yuan level, clearest policy targets)
The "Solid Waste Ten Articles" sets two hard targets: by 2030, annual comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste reaches 4.5 billion tons, and annual recycling of major renewable resources reaches 510 million tons.
These numbers can be back-checked. With current annual generation of 4.83 billion tons and utilization rates ranging from 30% to 60% by category, reaching 4.5 billion tons in five years requires an average annual growth rate of about 6%-8% — challenging but feasible.
Three specific sub-directions:
- High-value utilization of industrial solid waste: Smelting slag, tailings, red mud, coal gangue, phosphogypsum — no longer just "filler materials." Extraction of valuable components (iron, copper, rare earths) and production of new building materials (recycled aggregates, microcrystalline jade) are moving from demonstration to scale. Shaanxi Coal Group's coal gangue-to-microcrystalline jade project handles 30,000 tons annually; China Building Materials' construction waste recycled aggregate closed loop boasts gross margins exceeding 40% — these are already proven pathways.
- Urban solid waste: The trillion-yuan gap in construction waste: Policies require "promoting classified treatment of construction waste, including treatment costs in project budgets," achieving "dynamic balance between generation and disposal capacity" by 2030. Urban renewal and infrastructure renovation generate massive amounts of construction waste, but legal disposal channels are generally insufficient. Construction waste crushing and screening equipment, recycled aggregate production lines, and prefabricated building-compatible green building materials all have deterministic incremental demand.
- Upgrading "urban mines": Waste electrical appliances, end-of-life vehicles, power battery recycling — policies call for "upgrading actions for 'urban mine' demonstration bases" and implementing extended producer responsibility (EPR). This direction features rapid volume growth: power batteries are expected to see retirement volumes exceed 4 million tons by 2028, and photovoltaic modules 1.5 million tons by 2030.
Track Three: Supporting Technology and Services for Mine Solid Waste Surveys
This is singled out because it is not "treatment engineering" itself, but the technical service market upstream of treatment.
The requirements of HJ 1464 are demanding. Drone aerial surveys, Beidou positioning, 3D risk modeling, database construction — these were optional in the past but are now "standard." Nationwide, teams possessing "environmental expertise + IT capability + mining engineering experience" simultaneously are scarce. Supply shortage means early entrants have pricing power.
Additionally, the "one-site-one-policy" control ledger is not filed away after compilation. It must interface with subsequent treatment projects, central fund applications, and regulatory acceptance inspections. Institutions capable of integrating "investigation → assessment → solution design → fund application → project implementation" will have a clear competitive advantage.
Track Four: Recycling of Retired New Energy Resources
In February 2026, six ministries jointly issued guidance on comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules. Combined with previously issued policies on power battery recycling and wind turbine blade disposal, the policy framework for recycling the "three new items" (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic modules, wind turbines) is essentially complete.
The trajectory of retirement volume growth is certain:
- Power batteries: Over 4 million tons by 2028
- Photovoltaic modules: 1.5 million tons by 2030
- Wind turbine blades: First peak retirement wave 2025-2030
Valuable metal extraction (cobalt, lithium, nickel, rare earths) and high-value material utilization (carbon fiber, specialty plastics) are the two main profit points. GEM Co., Ltd. achieves 98% recovery rates for cobalt and nickel from power batteries; Zhefu Holding processes 40,000 tons of retired power batteries annually — leading enterprises have already proven their technical routes.
The barriers in this track lie in technology and qualifications. However, for new entrants, the technical routes for PV module and wind turbine blade recycling are not yet fully standardized, offering first-mover advantages.
How to Seize Opportunities: Three Practical Steps
Knowing where the opportunities are is one thing; turning them into projects is another. Here are three most pragmatic directions.
Step One: Find Projects
Solid waste management projects have several fixed entry points:
- Mining side: Provincial departments of natural resources and ecology/environment are advancing mine geological environment restoration plans. Provincial mining enterprises mostly have annual treatment plans. After HJ 1464 implementation, investigation and assessment themselves constitute the first wave of demand.
- Urban side: Construction waste resource utilization projects are typically led by housing and urban-rural development departments. Local government urban renewal and infrastructure investment plans contain clear estimates of construction waste generation. Monitor local "Zero-Waste City" construction plans — project lists are often attached.
- Park side: Vein industrial parks and resource recycling bases are the physical carriers for comprehensive solid waste management. Policies guarantee 1% industrial land allocation. The case of Shanxi Yuxian Vein Industrial Town, which has gathered 17 enterprises and achieved output value exceeding RMB 3 billion in 2024, demonstrates that entering parks not only saves costs but also enables upstream-downstream synergy.
Step Two: Prepare Materials and Submit Applications
The core document for central fund applications is the Measures for the Management of Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Special Funds. Eligible bulk solid waste comprehensive utilization projects can receive up to 20% of total investment.
Three common pitfalls in application materials:
- Positioning must be precise: Project applications should not say "how much solid waste I can handle," but rather "how many virgin resources and how much carbon I can help the country save." Construction waste projects should emphasize "recycled aggregates replacing natural sand and gravel"; tailings projects should highlight "valuable metal recovery replacing primary ore mining" — clearly articulate the resource-saving attributes of the project.
- Documentation must be complete: Third-party technical evaluation reports, carbon emission reduction calculations, and financial proof are all mandatory. Do not wait until the application window opens to prepare — there won't be enough time.
- Plans must be substantive: Technical process routes, equipment selection, raw material supply assurance, product sales channels, construction timeline, and financing plans — each item must be supported by specific data. Review experts evaluate concepts based on verifiable details, not generalities.
Step Three: Watch the Timeline
This round of solid waste management has several clear time windows:
- 2026: HJ 1464 surveys fully launched; investigation and assessment demand peaks
- 2027: Phosphogypsum stockpile remediation deadline (priority in Yunnan and 5 other provinces); closure of decommissioned landfills
- 2027-2028: Treatment projects concentratedly initiated; engineering order peak
- 2030: Over 60% of historical legacy stockpile sites remediated; annual bulk solid waste comprehensive utilization reaches 4.5 billion tons; tailings pond environmental hazards eliminated
The earlier institutions enter, the better positioned they will be to secure positions during the standard-setting and project pipeline phases.
Back to a Very Real Statement
Solid waste management is transforming from an "administrative task" into an "economic track."
The basis for this judgment is simple: when standards shift from "reference" to "mandatory," when funding shifts from "encouragement" to "project-based support," and when market size shifts from "estimated" to "calculable" — it ceases to be merely a concern for environmental protection departments and becomes a deterministic industrial direction.
The question is no longer "Is there opportunity?" The question is: Where do you stand on this track?