International Update | DNV Releases Energy Transition Outlook 2026: Hydrogen to 2060
On 12 May 2026, Det Norske Veritas (DNV) released its report, Energy Transition Outlook 2026: Hydrogen to 2060. Key findings are summarized below.
1. Clean Hydrogen Demand Is Expected to Increase Nearly 100-Fold by 2060, Enabling More Than 2 Gt CO₂ of Annual Emissions Reductions in Hard-to-Abate Sectors
The global hydrogen market is currently valued at approximately USD 240 billion, with around 100 million tonnes of hydrogen produced annually, predominantly from fossil fuels, resulting in approximately 1.3 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions.
By 2060, global hydrogen demand is projected to increase by 170%, while cumulative investments are expected to reach USD 3.2 trillion, including investments in off-grid renewable power generation for electrolysis-based hydrogen production.
Renewable and low-carbon hydrogen will remain a key decarbonization pathway for hard-to-electrify sectors such as steel, chemicals, aviation, and shipping. Clean hydrogen could replace approximately 65 million tonnes of conventional high-emission hydrogen and serve as a feedstock for synthetic fuel production.
2. Energy Security Concerns Will Accelerate Hydrogen Development Among Energy-Importing Countries
Renewable hydrogen and its derivatives can enhance energy security and storage capabilities, which are particularly important for countries and industries lacking domestic fossil energy resources.
China is accelerating the large-scale deployment of clean hydrogen and has incorporated hydrogen development into its 15th Five-Year Plan framework. Around 35% of future global growth in hydrogen production and consumption is expected to come from China.
Meanwhile, coal-based hydrogen used for ammonia and fertilizer production will continue to play an important role in safeguarding food security during the medium term.
To reduce long-term dependence on conventional fossil fuels, countries are promoting diversified hydrogen supply chains through a combination of domestic production and international imports.
Current geopolitical developments are accelerating final investment decisions (FIDs) for hydrogen projects. Building on approximately 1.5 million tonnes per year of installed renewable electrolysis capacity by 2025, an additional 10 million tonnes per year is expected to be added globally by 2030, with roughly half located in Europe and China.
3. Policies and Regulations Remain Critical to Scaling Up the Clean Hydrogen Economy
The development of clean hydrogen remains heavily dependent on policy support, financial subsidies, mandatory quotas, and carbon pricing mechanisms to bridge the cost gap with conventional fossil-based hydrogen production.
Slower policy implementation and revisions in some countries are among the primary reasons why DNV's current outlook is approximately 45% lower than its 2022 projection.
High-level strategic ambitions still need to be translated into detailed legislation, technical standards, and implementation guidelines. Industry collaboration and lessons learned from demonstration projects will be essential for market development.
In addition, investment risks need to be reduced through certification, verification, documentation, and carbon footprint accounting mechanisms to strengthen market confidence.
4. Further Improvements in Safety and Emissions Credibility Are Required for Large-Scale Hydrogen Deployment
Operational experience gained from small and medium-sized demonstration projects is gradually facilitating the transition toward inherently safer designs for large-scale hydrogen systems. However, significant challenges related to cost and safety remain in moving from demonstration to commercial deployment.
Hydrogen safety and system performance should be addressed from a holistic perspective encompassing both entire systems and subsystems. Greater efforts are still needed in standardization and the dissemination of best practices to attract further investment.
Governments worldwide are continuously strengthening regulatory frameworks for hydrogen safety and sustainability. Leading countries are actively working to establish internationally applicable and implementable rules and standards.
Reference: DNV, Energy Transition Outlook 2026: Hydrogen to 2060, May 2026
Source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yYyW7-Bl1f9jH6nTCTboqQ