BloombergNEF Releases New Energy Outlook 2026
On 19 May 2026, BloombergNEF (BNEF) released its flagship report, New Energy Outlook 2026, which highlights that recent disruptions in global energy markets may become catalysts for the energy transition. Many countries are seeking to reduce their dependence on imported fossil fuels to strengthen energy security. Meanwhile, electricity demand is increasing across virtually all regions of the world, driven by population growth, rising incomes, the expansion of data centers, and the electrification of end-use sectors. Supported by oversupply, technological progress, and declining costs, solar power is expected to become the world's largest single source of electricity within the next six years.
The report's core projections are based on BNEF's updated Economic Transition Scenario (ETS), which models the most likely evolution of the global energy system through 2050.
Unlike previous energy crises, many fossil fuel-importing economies now have viable opportunities to reduce their exposure to imported energy commodities through the deployment of low-carbon technologies. Asian economies with high energy import dependence—including Vietnam, Japan, Indonesia, and India—are expected to benefit the most. In 2025, energy import expenditures accounted for 3%–6% of GDP in these economies. The corresponding shares for the European Union and China were 2.3% and 2.7%, respectively, and are projected to decline rapidly over the coming decade. Net energy exporters such as the United States and Saudi Arabia are also expected to moderately reduce their reliance on imported energy. Although some coal-rich countries may temporarily reinforce coal utilization for energy security reasons, coal is projected to lose its long-term cost competitiveness, with coal-fired electricity generation falling to approximately half of its current share by 2050.
From a long-term perspective, the ETS marks the beginning of the "Age of Electricity." Over the next 24 years, electricity is expected to satisfy approximately two-thirds of incremental global energy demand, while natural gas will account for an additional 25%. Demand growth will primarily be driven by the electrification of sectors such as electric vehicles and data centers. By 2025, global data center capacity is projected to reach 84 GW, consuming approximately 500 TWh of electricity, equivalent to 1.9% of global electricity demand, representing a 20% year-on-year increase. By 2050, electricity demand from data centers is expected to more than double to 1,114 TWh, accounting for 3.6% of total electricity demand, equivalent to roughly one-tenth of global electricity consumption.
The pace of the energy transition will vary significantly across regions. China is expected to remain the global leader in electrification, with electricity already becoming the dominant final energy carrier in 2023. Under the ETS, the share of coal-fired generation in China will decline from approximately 54% in 2025 to 19% by 2035 and 7% by 2050. India is projected to enter the electricity-dominated era by 2041, when electricity overtakes both oil and coal as the country's primary energy carrier, although coal will continue to play an important role in industrial applications. Europe and the United States are expected to reach this milestone in 2043 and 2047, respectively.
From a technology perspective, solar power is forecast to become the largest global source of electricity by 2032. Battery deployment prospects have also been revised upward, with installed energy storage capacity projected to increase 17-fold, from 223 GW in 2025 to approximately 3.8 TW by 2035. Although electric vehicles will reduce global oil demand, the ETS identifies the transition from coal-fired generation to renewable energy, battery storage, and natural gas as the largest contributor to emissions reductions within the power sector. Under the Net Zero Scenario (NZS), where countries prioritize deep decarbonization, both oil and natural gas demand would decline substantially.
As electricity systems become larger and more dynamic, greater flexibility will be required on both the supply and demand sides. By 2035, approximately 11% of global electricity generation is expected to be shifted across different time periods, compared with only 3% today, reflecting the growing importance of flexible generation, energy storage, and demand-side management.
Investment remains a defining challenge. Global energy transition investment reached a record USD 2.3 trillion in 2025. However, achieving the NZS would require cumulative investment of approximately USD 235 trillion by 2050, representing 24% more investment than under the ETS. Such a pathway would result in an energy system where approximately 84% of total investment is directed toward low-carbon technologies, fundamentally reshaping the global energy landscape.
Additional key findings include the following:
· Global electricity demand has more than doubled since 2000, driven primarily by population growth and rising incomes, which have increased electricity consumption in buildings and industry.
· Under the ETS, global electricity demand is projected to increase by 29% by 2035 and 69% by 2050. Electricity demand in advanced economies, which had previously stagnated or declined, is expected to resume sustained growth, placing increasing pressure on grid expansion and permitting processes.
· BNEF has substantially revised its Net Zero Scenario. While the updated pathway remains consistent with limiting global warming to well below 2°C, the projected peak temperature has increased to 1.81°C, compared with 1.75°C in the 2024 edition, reflecting slower transition progress, shifting policy priorities, and limited advances in next-generation clean energy technologies. BNEF concludes that the 1.5°C target is no longer achievable, primarily due to persistently high emissions and continued investment in high-emission assets.
· Despite more than USD 500 billion invested by governments and private companies over the past five years to support clean energy start-ups, no breakthrough low-cost next-generation energy technologies have yet emerged. Technologies such as advanced nuclear power, geothermal energy, and next-generation energy storage have not yet demonstrated large-scale commercial viability.
· The Asia-Pacific region will lead global nuclear power expansion. By 2035, China and India are expected to account for approximately 80% of new nuclear capacity additions under the ETS. Of the 75.5 GW of nuclear projects currently under construction worldwide, 44 GW are located in China and India, including 38 GW in China and 6 GW in India.
· China will remain the world's largest contributor to emissions reductions under the ETS. National emissions are projected to decline by 17% from the 2023 peak by 2030, and by nearly 50% by 2050, although total emissions will still remain significantly higher than current levels in both the United States and Europe.
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[2] https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/C3PBABDM1yAUIglwiYC3kQ