Is China Really “Running Out of Garbage to Burn”? We Investigated.
Viral claims suggest waste sorting is no longer necessary. Here’s the reality behind China’s evolving waste management landscape.
By China Environment News
Recently, social media has been buzzing with claims that China is facing a shortage of garbage for its incinerators, leading some to argue that waste sorting is now redundant. Is this true?
Our investigation reveals a more nuanced picture: while some waste-to-energy plants are indeed operating below capacity (“waiting for rice to cook,” as the Chinese saying goes), other regions still face significant treatment shortages. These seemingly contradictory situations accurately reflect the current state of China’s waste management system.
The so-called "garbage shortage" is not a national crisis but a structural challenge—a growing pain during the industry's transition, exacerbated by regional imbalances and the urban-rural divide.
The Status Quo: Localized Surplus vs. Regional Shortages
Nationally, China leads the world, accounting for roughly 60% of global waste incineration capacity. According to the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD), by the end of 2024, China operated 1,137 municipal solid waste (MSW) incineration plants with a daily processing capacity of 1.158 million tons. The national average load rate stands at 88.7%, within the healthy range of 70%–110%. Fifteen provinces have achieved "zero landfill" of raw waste.
However, beneath these impressive national figures lies a stark geographic disparity:
- Eastern Surplus: Incinerator density follows an "East Dense, West Sparse" pattern. Shandong Province alone has 102 plants. In Tianjin, the actual waste processed was less than 70% of design capacity.
- Western Shortages: Qinghai and Tibet each have only one plant. Rural counties in Gansu, such as Zhengning, have struggled with illegal dumping and open burning due to inadequate facilities and logistics.
- Intra-Provincial Gaps: Even within Guangdong, a major economic hub, the provincial average utilization rate is only 54.41%. Yet, in Shenzhen, five plants operate at approximately 103% capacity, exceeding safe limits.
Experts emphasize that this surplus is localized. As Guo Yungao, Secretary-General of the Waste-to-Energy Committee of the All-China Environment Federation, notes: “Judging the national situation based on isolated cases of overcapacity is inappropriate.”
The Root Causes: Planning, Demographics, and Logistics
The coexistence of surplus and shortage stems from three key factors:
- Supply Outpacing Demand: Driven by government subsidies and profitability, the industry expanded rapidly. Capacity grew fivefold in a decade, hitting 2025 targets three years early.
- The Urban-Rural Divide: Having the technology doesn't guarantee waste reaches the plant. Rural areas suffer from "build-but-not-use" syndromes. High costs for collecting small amounts of dispersed waste often lack sustainable funding.
- Demographic Shifts: Slower population growth and economic transitions in certain regions have slowed waste generation rates.
The Path Forward: Integration and Circularity
Having largely solved the "Garbage Siege" crisis, China is shifting focus from sheer scale to quality and efficiency.
- Regional Coordination: Breaking administrative barriers. Counties like Baokang (Hubei) and Keshan (Heilongjiang) are "borrowing" capacity from neighbors or serving as regional hubs to balance loads across jurisdictions.
- Urban-Rural Integration: Extending city-level sanitation systems to villages. Models like "One Broom Sweeps All" (used in cities like Xiantao) and comprehensive funding mechanisms (as seen in Mouding County, Yunnan) ensure rural waste is collected and transported effectively.
- Circular Economy Transition: Moving from "burning everything" to "burning less." Guided by the 15th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy, the focus is shifting toward reduction at source and resource recovery. In Zigui County, Hubei, waste is converted locally into feed, fuel, and fertilizer ("Three Mountains, Three Materials").
Conclusion: Why Sorting Still Matters
The narrative that "there isn't enough garbage to burn" is misleading. Low incinerator loads in some areas actually indicate success in waste reduction. Furthermore, the bottlenecks are often logistical (getting the trash to the plant), not a lack of trash itself.
Waste sorting remains essential. It ensures that valuable resources are recycled and that only the residual waste enters incinerators, maximizing efficiency and minimizing environmental impact. As China navigates this transitional phase, the goal is not just to burn waste, but to manage resources intelligently.
Source: China Environment
Disclaimer: This article is reprinted for informational purposes. Views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher.