IAEA Releases 2026 Projections for Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power through 2060
On 14 September 2026, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released the 2026 edition of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2060. The publication is the 46th edition of the IAEA’s Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) and, for the first time, extends the projection horizon from 2050 to 2060.
Based on a global operating nuclear power capacity of 377.1 GW(e) at the end of 2025, the IAEA projects that capacity could reach 696 GW(e) by 2060 under its low-case scenario, approaching twice the 2025 level. Under the high-case scenario, capacity could rise to 1,284 GW(e), more than three times the 2025 level. Overall, the 2026 projections have been revised upward from the previous edition.
Projections Cover Global and Regional Energy and Nuclear Power Trends
The report presents global and regional projections under low- and high-case scenarios, covering ten geographical regions based on the United Nations M49 classification. Data on operating nuclear power reactors are drawn from the IAEA’s Power Reactor Information System (PRIS), while nuclear capacity projections are developed through country- and project-level assessments involving external experts participating in the IAEA’s annual consultancy process.
The low case represents a conservative but plausible projection based largely on the continuation of current market, technology and resource trends, with limited additional changes in laws, policies and regulations affecting nuclear power. It does not assume that national nuclear power targets will necessarily be achieved. The high case takes greater account of national intentions to expand nuclear power and policies related to energy security and climate change mitigation. Although more ambitious, it is also considered plausible. Both cases use the same assumptions for economic growth and electricity demand.
The IAEA stresses that its energy and electricity projections do not represent a net-zero pathway and are not aligned with scenarios designed to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The nuclear capacity projections should therefore be interpreted as a plausible range rather than precise forecasts.
Nuclear Power Generated 2,689 TWh of Electricity in 2025
Global electricity generation reached 32,055 TWh in 2025, more than twice the level recorded in 2000. Fossil fuels accounted for 58% of total generation, hydropower for 14%, and wind and solar power together for around 17%. Nuclear power supplied 8.4% of global electricity.
Nuclear electricity generation increased by 1.1% from 2024 to 2,689.1 TWh in 2025. At the end of the year, 413 nuclear power reactors were in operation worldwide, with a combined capacity of 377.1 GW(e). Another 72 reactors, representing 77.2 GW(e), were under construction.
The ageing of the existing reactor fleet remains an important factor in long-term capacity development. Around 67% of global operating nuclear capacity has been in service for at least 30 years, while 46% has operated for 40 years or more. The report therefore highlights the need for substantial new capacity to offset future retirements and notes that, where feasible, extending the operating lifetime of existing reactors can provide a cost-effective source of baseload, low-emission electricity.
In 2025, the United States remained the world’s largest producer of nuclear electricity, generating 785.6 TWh, followed by China with 438.6 TWh, France with 373.5 TWh, the Russian Federation with 204.9 TWh and the Republic of Korea with 175.5 TWh.
Global Nuclear Capacity Could Exceed 1,280 GW(e) by 2060
Global final energy consumption is projected to increase by around 20% between 2025 and 2060, while electricity consumption is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.2%, more than doubling over the period. By 2060, electricity’s share of final energy consumption is projected to be nearly twice its 2025 level.
Against this backdrop, total global power generation capacity is projected to rise to almost three times its 2025 level by 2060. Nuclear capacity could reach 696 GW(e) under the low case and 1,284 GW(e) under the high case. Total electricity generation is projected to reach approximately 2.5 times the 2025 level.
Under the high case, nuclear electricity generation would increase to almost four times its 2025 level by 2060, with nuclear power’s share of global electricity generation rising by around five percentage points. Under the low case, nuclear generation would more than double, although its share of total electricity generation would decline by around one percentage point.
The expansion would require substantial additions of new generating capacity. Under the high case, approximately 128 GW(e) of nuclear capacity is projected to retire by 2060, while around 1,017 GW(e) of new capacity would be added. Under the low case, around 220 GW(e) would retire and approximately 521 GW(e) would be added.
Small modular reactors (SMRs) are expected to contribute to this expansion, accounting for around 28% of projected new nuclear capacity in the high case and 23% in the low case. The report notes continued progress in SMR demonstration projects and sustained interest from both emerging nuclear power countries and countries seeking to expand existing nuclear programmes.
Nuclear Power Growth Varies Significantly across Regions
Regional projections show substantial differences in future energy and nuclear power development. Africa is projected to experience particularly rapid growth in electricity demand, with electricity consumption increasing at an average annual rate of 6.5% and reaching nearly ten times its 2025 level by 2060.
Under the high case, some of the strongest relative increases in nuclear capacity are projected in Africa, Southern Asia and Western Asia. In absolute terms, Central and Eastern Asia is projected to reach 407 GW(e) of nuclear capacity by 2060 under the high case, while North America could reach 342 GW(e).
Regional differences are also pronounced in the deployment of SMRs. In North America, SMRs account for around 60% of projected new nuclear capacity under both scenarios, while all projected new nuclear capacity in Oceania is represented by SMRs.
The IAEA cautions that long-term electricity demand remains subject to considerable uncertainty. Rapid growth in demand for secure and clean electricity from the digital economy, together with the pace of electrification in transport and industry, could materially affect future electricity needs and, consequently, the scale of nuclear power deployment through 2060.
Source：
[1] https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-sdg7-the-energy-progress-report-2026
[2] https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/i92VwAjLQ7IilqnbKLG4uQ