Global Methane Emissions: Current Status, Policy Trends, and Future Outlook
Methane is the second-largest greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, contributing about 30% to global warming and serving as an important lever for mitigating climate change in the short term. However, the current global methane emissions situation remains severe, and existing policies still fall far short of established climate goals. How to accelerate global methane emissions reduction has become one of the key issues in implementing the temperature control targets of the Paris Agreement. Based on more than 10 reports released since October 2025 by authoritative institutions such as the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the German Environment Agency (Umwelt Bundesamt), as well as international think tanks such as Climate Analytics and Ember, this article systematically reviews the latest trends in global methane emissions, analyzes policy progress in major countries and regions, and provides judgments on future developments.
01 Current Status of Global Methane Emissions
1. Total methane emissions remain high, and the emissions reduction gap is still large
Although many countries and companies have announced reductions in methane emissions, global methane emissions have not shown a downward trend. The Global Methane Status 2025 report shows that global anthropogenic methane emissions in 2020 were approximately 352 million tonnes per year and are expected to increase by 5% by 2030, reaching 369 million tonnes per year. The report predicts that if the measures committed in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Methane Action Plans (MAPs) submitted as of mid-2025 are fully implemented, methane emissions by 2030 are expected to be 8% lower than 2020 levels, which leaves a large gap compared with the goal of the Global Methane Pledge to reduce emissions by 30% from 2020 levels by 2030. Under current legislation, without additional action, methane emissions are expected to be 21% higher than 2020 levels by 2050, making it difficult to achieve the goal of limiting global temperature rise to within 1.5°C and 2°C before 2050. The Global Coal Mine Methane Assessment 2026 report points out that about 89% of methane emissions in 2023 were not reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and research has found large gaps in monitoring data, suggesting that actual methane emissions may be underestimated. According to the Global Methane Tracker 2026 report, based on the marginal abatement cost curve, achieving a 75% reduction in global methane emissions by 2035 will require an average annual investment of USD 28 billion, of which the oil and gas sector will need about USD 22 billion.
2. Methane emissions are highly concentrated, with agriculture and energy being key reduction areas
From the perspective of methane emission sources, agriculture has consistently been the largest source of global methane emissions, while methane emissions from the waste sector are growing fastest. According to the Global Methane Status 2025 report, global methane emissions mainly come from three sectors: agriculture, energy, and waste. Among UNFCCC Parties, 85 countries have implemented agricultural methane emission reduction measures. The China Methane Action Progress (2025) report from the University of California, Berkeley, points out that coal mines and agriculture are the main sources of methane emissions in China, and methane emissions from livestock farming are still rising. According to the Global Methane Tracker 2026 report, methane emissions from global fossil energy in 2025 remained at a very high level, reaching 124 million tonnes, accounting for nearly 35% of anthropogenic methane emissions. Among them, methane emissions from oil, coal, and natural gas were 45 million tonnes, 43 million tonnes, and 36 million tonnes, respectively; methane emissions from incomplete combustion of traditional biomass (mainly used for cooking and heating) were about 20 million tonnes. Addressing the methane emissions crisis will strengthen global energy security.
3. Regional differences in methane emissions are significant, and attention must be paid to emission trends in major emitting countries
A comparison of methane emissions across different countries and regions shows that China, the United States, and India are the largest methane emitters. For example, in 2022, the combined methane emissions of these three countries accounted for about one-third of the global total. Although some countries and regions, including the EU and the United States, have reduced their methane emissions since 1990, emissions in most major methane-emitting countries continue to increase. In terms of methane emissions from fossil energy, the top ten countries account for about 70% of global fossil energy methane emissions, with China, the United States, and Russia ranking in the top three. Globally, the methane emission intensity of oil and gas extraction has declined somewhat, while the methane emission intensity of coal mining is higher than that of oil and gas; among them, the methane emission intensity of upstream activities has decreased by about 10% since 2019, but trends vary significantly across countries.
02 Global and Major Country Methane Emission Reduction Policy Trends
1. Global governance: moving from voluntary commitments to mandatory constraints, but implementation remains insufficient
Global methane policy is moving from aspirational targets into a stage of legalization, standardization, and institutionalization. The coverage of the Global Methane Pledge has expanded from more than 100 countries in 2021 to 159 countries and the EU, covering nearly 75% of global oil and gas production and 65% of methane emissions. Current detailed policies and regulations propose reducing methane in the oil and gas sector by about 20% by 2030 and about 26% by 2035, still far below the 30% reduction target set by the Global Methane Pledge. In the coal sector, reduction ambition is limited and the implementation gap is even larger; existing policies and regulations propose reducing coal-related methane emissions by 12% by 2030 and 22% by 2035. Overall, global methane policy progress is characterized by "expanding commitments but insufficient implementation." Translating top-level design into implementation requires moving from commitments to action.
2. Latest developments in methane policies and regulations in major countries
Since 2025, many countries have introduced or strengthened mandatory policies and regulations targeting methane emissions. These mainly include:
(1) European Union. The EU plays the role of rule-maker in global methane governance. The EU Methane Emissions Reduction Regulation took effect in August 2024 and is the world's first legislation specifically targeting methane emissions reduction in the energy sector. The regulation introduces requirements such as leak detection and repair (LDAR) and source-level methane quantification, and prohibits methane emissions from coal mine drainage systems. Importers are required to provide information on the origin and route of commodities, as well as information on methane control measures such as LDAR and monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV). The EU will further require operators of fossil energy facilities to regularly detect methane emissions and develop import standards to provide compliance guidance for importers and non-EU producers.
(2) United States. The United States faces uncertainty at the federal level in methane emissions reduction. The Global Methane Tracker 2026 report shows that compliance deadlines for various regulatory requirements on methane emissions in the U.S. oil and gas industry have been extended to January 2027. The U.S. Congress has postponed the effective date of the "waste emissions charge" stipulated in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act to 2034. In January 2025, after the Trump administration took office, it announced withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and repealed multiple greenhouse gas standards through executive orders. The series of policies introduced essentially fully loosened restrictions on fossil energy production and development, causing a significant negative impact on the methane emissions reduction process. At the state level, positive actions continue, such as the California Air Resources Board (CARB) launching the first U.S. project to use satellite remote sensing to detect methane leaks, aimed at tracking super-emitters.
(3) Canada. Canada revised federal regulations on emissions from upstream oil and gas facilities. In December 2025, Canada released the Enhanced Oil and Gas Methane Regulations, strengthening LDAR standards and fugitive emissions management, aiming to reduce upstream oil and gas methane emissions by 72% from 2012 levels by 2030. In the same period, Canada released the Landfill Methane Regulations, requiring landfills to recover methane and destroy or utilize it, and to conduct regular monitoring to prevent exceeding specified thresholds.
(4) United Kingdom. On October 29, 2025, the UK government released the Methane Action Plan, outlining the UK's key measures for methane emissions reduction under the framework of the Carbon Budget and Growth Delivery Plan, mainly including reducing methane emissions related to agriculture, waste, and fossil energy, while addressing methane leakage, aiming to reduce methane emissions by about 12.7 million tonnes between 2020 and 2030. The plan also outlines international efforts to reduce methane emissions, including assessing methane emissions associated with imported fossil energy.
(5) China. China's top-level design for methane emissions reduction has taken initial shape, but quantitative targets and assessment mechanisms still need improvement. Although China has not signed the Global Methane Pledge, it released the Methane Emissions Control Action Plan in November 2023, clarifying methane emissions control targets for key areas (such as energy, agriculture, and waste treatment) by 2030, and has achieved certain results in monitoring technologies and other aspects. In September 2025, China submitted a new round of NDC targets: by 2035, China's net economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 7%–10% from the peak level, and for the first time methane, nitrous oxide, fluorinated gases, and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases will be included in the total volume control scope, marking a shift in the control scope from key industries to the entire economy. The China Methane Action Progress (2025) report points out that the shortcoming in the implementation of China's methane emissions reduction policies lies in measurable assessment mechanisms, especially at the local level. There is a need to improve the baseline calculation and trend projection system for methane emissions and to formulate methane emissions reduction roadmaps for sectors such as coal, livestock, rice, and waste.
03 Future Outlook
1. Global methane governance urgently needs to bridge the gap between emission reduction commitments and implementation actions
The coverage of the Global Methane Pledge continues to expand, but global emissions have still not entered a downward trajectory. According to the Global Methane Tracker 2026 report, even if all countries fully implement their NDCs and MAPs, there will still be a clear gap compared with the global goal of a 30% reduction from 2020 levels by 2030; only by scaling up the technically optimal and feasible emission reduction measures can this target be achieved on schedule. It can be seen that the focus of global methane governance is gradually shifting from "whether to commit" to "whether there are mandatory standards, verifiable data, and actual emission reductions." How to narrow the gap between "target commitments" and actual action has become a core difficulty in global climate governance.
2. Advancing methane emissions reduction should focus on key areas and balance technical feasibility with economic rationality
According to the analysis conclusions of the Global Methane Tracker 2026, existing mature methane emissions reduction technologies can effectively reduce methane fugitive emissions in fossil energy extraction and biomass production and consumption. Full application of existing technologies can reduce methane emissions in the fossil energy industry by about 70%. By sector, methane emissions reduction potential is most prominent in oil and gas extraction, contributing more than 60% of the overall reduction space; the methane emissions reduction potential of the coal industry is about 20%. Coal mine methane extraction and utilization technologies are relatively mature, but generally face the problem of weak economic benefits. In addition, persistent methane leakage from abandoned mines is prominent, urgently requiring supporting regular monitoring and ecological governance measures. The report results show that about 30% of methane emissions reduction pathways in the fossil energy sector, totaling more than 35 million tonnes, can achieve net-zero cost; based on 2025 international energy average prices, among technical measures such as leak monitoring and repair in the oil and gas industry, upgrading and renovation of old equipment, and deployment of oil and gas vapor recovery units, nearly 30 million tonnes of methane emissions reduction can achieve net-zero cost. The core reason is that the market revenue from methane can cover the implementation cost of emissions reduction.
3. Methane emissions reduction needs to deliver co-benefits for climate, energy, and health
If all feasible methane emissions reduction solutions are implemented globally in a coordinated manner, global methane emissions are expected to fall by 32% by 2030 compared with the 2020 baseline under current policy scenarios. This would not only prevent about 180,000 premature deaths and avoid crop yield losses of 19 million tonnes, but also create comprehensive economic benefits exceeding USD 330 billion per year. At the same time, turbulence in the Middle East amid geopolitical conflicts further highlights the strategic significance of methane emissions reduction for energy security: managing unorganized methane venting and leakage in the global oil and gas industry can unlock 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas resources each year. Promoting upstream and downstream control standards in natural gas importing countries can further consolidate the foundation of global energy security. Taking major natural gas importing economies such as the EU, the UK, Japan, and South Korea as examples, if methane control requirements are implemented across the entire industrial chain, about 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas supply could be quickly released in the short term, effectively alleviating gas price fluctuations and supply pressure.
Source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/h3bfPgxKi8eQD92x126z_w?scene=1&click_id=1550150336