The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its report 'Renewables 2024'
On October 9th, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released the Renewables 2024 report, which analyzes and predicts the global renewable energy deployment trends in the power, transportation and heating sectors by 2030, and discusses the key challenges facing the development of the industry. According to the report, by 2030, global renewable energy will increase by 5,500 GW, and the total global installed capacity will increase by 1.7 times compared with 2022, close to the two-fold growth target set by the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28). The key points are as follows:
(1) With the rapid deployment of solar energy, renewable energy generation will meet nearly half of the world's electricity demand by 2030. Global renewable energy capacity is expected to surge by 2030, with more than 5,500 GW of new capacity added between 2024 and 2030, almost three times the increase between 2017 and 2023 and roughly equivalent to the current generation capacity of China, the European Union, India and the United States combined.
(2) China will consolidate its leadership position and account for nearly 60% of the world's installed renewable energy capacity by 2030. China has achieved its target of 1,200 GW of wind and solar power capacity by 2030 six years ahead of schedule, and according to current market trends and policy deployments, China will account for nearly half of the world's new renewable energy capacity and nearly 60% of the world's total installed capacity by 2030. Since the removal of the feed-in tariff in 2020, China's total solar PV capacity has almost tripled, driven by cost competitiveness and supportive policies, and wind power capacity has doubled. While China has the largest amount of new renewable energy capacity, India is growing at the fastest pace among several major economies.
(3) From a technical point of view, by 2030, solar PV will account for 80% of the world's new installed capacity of renewable energy power generation. The growth was mainly driven by the construction of new large-scale solar power plants, as well as corporate and household rooftop solar installations. Despite the ongoing challenges, the wind energy industry is poised for a recovery, with installed capacity expanding at a rate doubling between 2024 and 2030 compared to the 2017-2023 period. In almost all countries, wind and photovoltaic power are the cheapest options for the growth of installed power generation capacity.
(4) Nearly 70 countries, which account for 80% of the world's installed renewable energy capacity, will meet or exceed their 2030 targets. This increase will increase the total installed global renewable energy capacity by 1.7 times compared to 2022, and has not yet reached the two-fold growth target set by COP28. The IEA's analysis suggests that it is entirely possible to achieve this goal if governments seize the opportunity for action in the near future, including by developing bold action plans in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and strengthening international cooperation to reduce the high financing costs of emerging market and developing economies.
(5) More attention needs to be paid to grid infrastructure and the integration of renewable energy into the grid. Renewables are expected to account for nearly half of global electricity generation by 2030, with wind and solar alone doubling to 30% of global electricity generation. Photovoltaic power generation will surpass hydropower and wind power to become the largest source of renewable energy. The increasing amount of wind and solar power generation will lead to an increase in the curtailment rate of wind and solar power, and the need for power system flexibility is increasing. Governments need to step up efforts to safely integrate volatile renewables into their power systems, with a focus on renewable energy integration measures, such as improving power system flexibility. The IEA recommends reducing policy uncertainty and streamlining the permitting process to build and retrofit 25 million kilometers of grid by 2030 and increase installed energy storage capacity to 1,500 GW.
(6) The rapid expansion of renewable energy generation is driving the decarbonization of industry, transportation, and buildings. The share of renewables in final energy consumption is expected to increase from 13% in 2023 to nearly 20% by 2030, driven by a significant increase in renewable electricity. But nearly 75% of the world's energy needs will still be met by fossil fuels. Achieving global climate goals will require not only accelerating the rollout of renewable energy, but also dramatically accelerating the deployment of sustainable biofuels, biogas, hydrogen, and electricity-to-fuels. As these fuels are still more expensive than fossil fuels, their share of the global energy mix is expected to remain below 6% by 2030.
(7) The race to manufacture PV and wind power continues, but the situation is changing. Global solar manufacturing capacity is expected to exceed 1,100 GW by the end of 2024, more than double projected demand. By 2030, China will still maintain more than 80% of the world's PV manufacturing capacity, but India and the US will triple their solar PV capacity, diversifying supply; But the production cost of solar panels in the United States is three times that of China, and twice that of China in India. Therefore, policymakers should consider balancing the additional costs and benefits of local manufacturing while weighing key priorities such as employment and energy security.